Despite a California lawsuit against Activision Blizzard and this year’s game not being from one of the more “notable” sub-franchises (Black Ops or Modern Warfare), NPD analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts that Call of Duty: Vanguard will be the best-selling game in the US for 2021. His prediction isn’t much of a stretch, and is predicated on more than a decade of data that shows Call of Duty dominating the charts.
I have Call of Duty: Vanguard forecast to be 2021’s best-selling video game in the U.S.
Shocking, I know. https://t.co/3jd0W8Cbgn
— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) August 16, 2021
A look back at the best-selling games since 2009 shows that Call of Duty was only ever knocked out of the top spot twice, and both were for new release Rockstar games—2013’s Grand Theft Auto V and 2018’s Red Dead Redemption II.
’16 Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare
’17 Call of Duty: WWII
’18 Red Dead Redemption II
’19 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
’20 Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold WarAnyone want to predict 2021’s best-selling game?
(2/2)— Mat Piscatella (@MatPiscatella) August 17, 2021
The two titles to get knocked off the throne for their respective years were Call of Duty: Ghosts and Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, and but for Rockstar dominating the charts with highly anticipated new releases, they would have secured the crown.
Even with caveats for how game sales are (and aren’t) tracked, such as some companies like Nintendo notoriously not releasing digital sales numbers, Piscatella says that “it doesn’t matter for this list,” which seems to indicate that Call of Duty is far and away the best-selling title regardless of factoring in estimates on unreported digital sales for other games.
Others have pointed out the re-release of Grand Theft Auto V coming to PS5 and Xbox Series X this year as a possibility of dethroning Call of Duty, but historical data has shown that Rockstar only has that kind of strength with new releases. The PS4 and Xbox One re-release of GTA V did overtake Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare in 2014, the year it released. Call of Duty is also doing better than ever with the multi-game integrations that include Warzone, which has helped with generating sales of the year’s premium titles. Rumors say that Call of Duty: Vanguard’s integration into Warzone will be far more in-depth than even Black Ops Cold War was, which could (and likely will) in turn drive up the adoption rate of the premium game.
And while there’s the current press surrounding the California lawsuit against Activision Blizzard, which alleges a discriminatory “frat boy” culture, as well as a massive push for change from the publisher’s employees, the widespread general success of Call of Duty games extends well beyond people who are embroiled within video game culture. The lawsuit may have some impact on Call of Duty sales this year, but Piscatella clearly doesn’t think it will have a big enough influence to affect Vanguard’s spot at the top of the best-seller list. Additionally, employees at the various developers, including Vanguard developer Sledgehammer Games, have not called for a boycott of the games they are making and working on amid the ongoing lawsuit, even as they themselves continue to push for a more fair, safe, and equitable working culture.
Call of Duty: Vanguard is set for a full reveal in Warzone on August 19th at 10 am PT.
